Aside from what happened before, what happened after 31 March was a “waste of minds” for Turkey! When AKP lost power, they cancelled the elections in Istanbul on grounds of reason and illogical reasons which almost no one, including themself, believed. The ongoing campaign for a repeat election was filled with Unreal nonsense and inconsistencies. The government had almost lost its mind. So far, those who skillfully put their own agenda to the fore in all elections and apply their calculated political tactics and electoral tricks to a great deal of the “AKP’s-media” (that is, ninety percent of the Turkish media) seems not worked! they did not succeed despite their arduous efforts. All the old and new fake news they applied to, especially the issue of “Pontus”, have given the opposite results, which they expected. Bahçeli’s (president of fascist party) explanation for HDP is not listening the Öcalan’s (leader of PKK) orders will not be forgotten! It was obvious that they had a big panic. They finally lost Istanbul with a clear difference. Those who tried to explain the 13,000 votes in the first election with “theft” reached 800,000 votes in the second election. What do we say, “enjoy your meal!”
But we need to underline that the actual loss of goverment, or rather “regime,” is far beyond that. Shortly before the re-election, Nurettin Nebati, (deputy treasury and Finance Minister) said: “We all understood on 31 March what we would lose if we lost the Metropolitan Municipality. In the 18-day process, they learned how to take something gigantic and what to do with it. They are forcing for this..!”
The situation couldn’t be clearer than this. However, we think that what is wanted here is not limited to the “money possibilities” provided by Istanbul. Istanbul has always represented much more for everyone. The loss of Istanbul is not only a loss of source of money, but also a loss of the historical, moral and ideological superiority claims of a political-social movement. Moreover, the “conquest of Istanbul once again” is one of the basic symbols of this lost religious character and a large-scale hegemony case. In short, the situation for the regime is “the fall of the city” beyond the loss of a metropolitan election! As a result, the electoral defeat is also the decadence of the idea of “the eternal power of nationalist-sacred ideological-political tradition,” which embellishes Erdogan’s dreams. “The winner of Istanbul also wins Turkey!” or “who losses Istanbul, loses Turkey too!”the rule has begun to work together with some very important fundamental dynamics. An absolute and automatic result cannot be said, but we can talk about strong tendencies in this direction.
Second major break…
Another side of the case is that the re-election results are the second major break after Gezi protest for the regime. The first had caused the person at the top of regime to “lose his political mind and start acting on his instincts” because of the great disappointment and spiritual destruction he experienced at a point when he thought that he was now controlling everything, perhaps even coming up with a divine message heralding his endless and seamless power. The Gezi protests was also one of the strong signs of what a presidential regime means in Turkey and what it can lead to. The protests was a breaking point because of the facts he uncovered, deciphered, and the reactions he sparked in the side of govermenet. So after all these years, it still led to profound destruction and outrage in RTE’s mind. The Gezi was also the moment of decision for a new form of state, namely the construction of a new regime: it was absolutely clear from the point of the government that Turkey could no longer be governed as it used to be.
As for the second big break. If the Gezi is the starting point for the construction of a new regime, the loss of the Istanbul election by a very clear margin, this time is the biggest blow that this new regime has received after the beginning of a disadvantaged corruption that has already spread over many years. It is clear that this is a second historical moment of break, no matter what the consequences of tomorrow and later. Anyone who is opposites must make their future plans through this reality.
In short, all this shows that we are at a ” crossroad point.” These points are also “obscurity” situations, in a sense, that hold many possibilities. This also means that the struggle between forces trying to make the situation “knowable” for themselves will be exacerbated…
The legitimacy claims of the neo-bonapartist regimes are based on “free and fair” elections and, of course, electoral victories, despite all the restrictions imposed on the opposition. But beyond what happened in the last few elections, the events in the March 31 process have invalidated this explanation of legitimacy. The widespread belief is that; regime that is resisting so much not to lose Istanbul by illegally, means can do much more for not to lose of all Turkey . Since the multi-party life in Turkey, elections as the most important democratic institution functioning properly, except in some exceptional circumstances, have no longer had any credibility. Ensuring the security of votes and voting-box in the elections has become an increasingly “militant” activity!
But there is another aspect. The problem is not limited to a loss of legitimacy in the form and nature of the elections. The fact that government is likely to lose the election by a very large margin despite all the irregularities, inequality, cheating and scrapping introduced in the election processes means that its loss is also political and much more “branched snag”.
Solidarity or class solidarity?
One of the most important facts revealed more clearly by the repeated election is that the decline in the regime camp is gradually increasing, even beginning to develop into a process of dissolution and fragmentation to some extent. (here is mainly mentioned of the AKP.) On the basis of this” identity ” and even at the level of neighborhoods step by step, the material-spiritual social-political network, door-to-door, has begun to disintegrate due to the effects of the class-social dynamics brought about by the economic crisis. Real life distributes the social illusion that forms around RTE. We have repeated many times that the only way to overthrow the solidarity of power aroung govermnmet is transform to the working class solidarity.T his meant that all struggles against regime, including the struggle for democracy, should be based on class inequalities, not on “identities”. it was clear that no real step could be taken before the winning of poor laborers which are voting resources of government. Repeated elections have shown that in a proletarian city such as Istanbul, which greatly determines Turkey’s economic, political and cultural life, the soil under the feet of goverment is skimming and the balances holding power are beginning to deteriorate.
If the rule that the “who lose Istanbul, will lose Turkey” is correct, it is clear that the earthquake that started in Istanbul will affect the whole of Turkey, albeit with certain speed and acceleration differences. The loss of government, as well as its “edibility” in a very clear way, has begun to change the psychological statue of masses, based on the belief that “no other kind can be possible.”
Fear, panic, bewilderment and disintegration…
It is obvious that all these developments and trends will cause serious fear, panic, confusion and turmoil in the ranks of AKP, even it started. The new regime is not as robust as it seems, as it rises through a rotten past despite its whole of “new” image. The economic power of AKP, in addition to the effects of the capitalist crisis in which it played a big role in its deepening, has been destroyed by the fact that its “special economic infrastructure” based entirely on a criminal organization has reached the point of bankruptcy. The “big bourgeoisie”, which was created by the hand of AKP and regime, has fallen into trouble.
Another important point is that the only real power that can restore the recovery is the fact that the AKP itself was liquidated as a real political party by its founding president. This leads to the disintegration of the party’s masses, while strengthening the tendency of the new parties to come out of the party. Indeed, we will be witnessing the emergence of one or two parties from AKP origin, which will be established in the near future under the leadership of the liquidated cadres. The developments show that an autocratic regime, which has been “monopolized” by drying out its own social resources and which has gained oligarchic character, can not walk too long on the basis of the “mystic ties” between the “leader” and the masses, and that the material facts are beginning to reveal themselves in full clarity.
Let us repeat, however, that all this should not lead us to underestimate the dangers posed by the regime. There are many elements within and around the regime that see that this great historical opportunity can be missed so as not to come back again, and who try to prevent it, who want to hold “power” at all costs. At the peak of the regime, there are a number of forces trying to take power in the post-RTÉ period, as well as forces aiming to write to their own household and seize power, especially the MHP, the opportunity created by the RTE. In the coming period, we may witness a number of “palace coups” that may take place on the basis of various alliances or conflicts between them. If it does happen, such attempts will be completed with actions aimed at crushing social and political opposition, especially working class movement and left tendencies, including some forces organized within the state and some paramilitary forces.